Poland as a New Military Power in Europe: A Bulwark against Russia and a New Strategic Leadership Role in the EU
In recent years, Poland has developed into one of Europe's most important defense powers. Given the ongoing threat from Russia, Warsaw is focusing on a massive rearmament, stronger military cooperation with allies, and an active role in European security policy. By assuming the EU Council Presidency in January 2025, Poland will also have the opportunity to anchor its security policy priorities at the European level and set a new security policy course.
Poland has become a key defense power in Europe, increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP due to Russia's threat. In 2024, Poland invested 4.1% of GDP in defense, exceeding NATO's 2% target. / Picture: © Wikimedia Commons; Stiopa, CC BY-SA 4.0 International DEED (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en)
Just a few years ago, Poland was considered a mediocre military power within NATO. This has changed fundamentally. Since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 in violation of international law and especially since the large-scale attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Poland has greatly expanded its armed forces. The number of soldiers has increased by almost 75 percent from 2015 to 164,000 today, and the government is planning a further increase to 300,000 soldiers in the coming years.
At the same time, Poland is investing heavily in modern military equipment. It has signed contracts worth billions with the USA, South Korea, Germany, and France to acquire tanks, fighter jets, artillery systems, and air defense technologies. In 2024, the country already invested 4.1 percent of its GDP in defense, a figure that is set to rise to 4.7 percent in 2025. This means that Poland spends relatively more on its military than any other NATO country. Even Donald Trump's call for European NATO members to spend at least 5 percent of their GDP on defense seems to be falling on sympathetic ears in Warsaw.
Poland's new role in the EU security architecture
By taking over the EU Council Presidency on January 1, 2025, Poland has set itself the goal of having a lasting influence on the European security architecture. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was already President of the European Council from 2014 to 2019, is using his extensive networks in Brussels to establish Poland as a driving force in the EU's security and defense policy.
The focus of the Polish Council Presidency is an initiative to strengthen the European defense industry. Poland is committed to joint European arms production and increased European involvement in financing the defense industry. Particular attention is being paid to the modernization and rearmament of the EU's eastern flank. In this context, Poland is pushing the “East Shield” project, a defense system along the EU's external border with Russia and Belarus, which consists of military fortifications, modern radar systems, and drone defense systems.
Louise Souverbie, Research Fellow at IRIS, highlights that the Polish Presidency is strongly focused on security and defense. This spans seven strategic dimensions: external, internal, economic, energy, health, food, and information security. The Polish government is committed to financing joint defense projects with EU funds, including the construction of military or dual infrastructure and the promotion of European air defense.
Poland will also play a key role in the negotiations on the European Defense Industry Program (EDIP) after the Hungarian Presidency failed to reach an agreement in the European Council. Warsaw aims to bring these negotiations to a conclusion and take European defense cooperation to a new level.
Transatlantic tensions and the Trump challenge Another important topic is transatlantic cooperation. The re-election of Donald Trump as US President poses new challenges for European security policy. Trump has already indicated that he expects the Europeans to contribute more financially to NATO and that the USA will focus more on its interests. Poland, which is traditionally a close ally of the USA, could take on a mediating role and position itself as a bridge between Washington and Brussels.
However, Donald Tusk and his government also emphasize that Europe must become more independent from the USA. This includes more intensive security policy cooperation within the EU, particularly with France and Germany. Warsaw sees itself as a pioneer of a stronger and more independent Europe that does not rely solely on the United States.
The debate about sending troops to Ukraine
The question of whether European states should send troops to Ukraine remains a particularly contentious issue. While French President Emmanuel Macron has not ruled out such an option, Poland has so far signaled restraint. The government in Warsaw argues that the delivery of weapons to Ukraine and the provision of strategic security assistance currently have priority. There is also domestic political resistance to direct military involvement in the conflict, as surveys show that a majority of the Polish population rejects the deployment of troops.
Analyses by leading researchers from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and IRIS underline this position. Monika Sus from the Polish Academy of Sciences emphasizes that Poland can secure its security policy credibility through pragmatic measures such as the promotion of joint European defense investments. Wojciech Konończuk from the Centre for Eastern European Studies (OSW) emphasizes that a military presence of Western troops in Ukraine is currently not realistic, as the front lines will not stabilize in the foreseeable future.
In addition, Anastasiya Shapochkina from Eastern Circles warns that Europe must take a stronger leadership role in defense given the uncertainties surrounding US policy under Trump. Pierre Buhler, former French ambassador to Poland, underlines that Warsaw's high defense spending and its proactive policy to strengthen the European security architecture make Poland a credible security actor.
Poland as a key player in European security policy
Poland is well on the way to becoming a leading military and security power in Europe. With significant investment in the armed forces, a clear strategic vision, and an active role within the EU, Warsaw is using its presidency to consolidate its position as a security policy player. At the same time, the challenge remains to maintain the balance between European autonomy and the still indispensable transatlantic partnership.
The coming months will show whether Poland can achieve these ambitious goals. However, it is clear that Warsaw is not only shaping Europe's security architecture but will also play a central role in the continent's geopolitical future.