OPEC+: Alliance of Eight Countries Slows Oil Production Until Spring 2026
In a time of global economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ remains a dominant force in the worldwide oil industry. At a virtual meeting, the eight leading member states decided to suspend the planned production increases for the coming months for the time being.
To monitor market dynamics, the group of eight countries will hold monthly meetings, with the next one scheduled for February 1, 2026, to review market conditions and compensation progress. / Picture: © Wikimedia Commons / DALIBRI / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
The core OPEC+ group, consisting of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, reaffirmed its decision to pause the production increases planned for February and March 2026. The ministers cited the typical seasonality of the market and the goal of maintaining the current balance despite healthy fundamentals and low inventories as the main reasons for this decision.
The alliance emphasizes its “full flexibility” in this regard. The voluntary cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) and the additional adjustments of 2.2 million bpd from 2023 will remain in place. These volumes will only be returned to the market gradually, depending on market developments.
Focus on discipline: New compensation plans submitted
A key point in the negotiations was compliance with production quotas. The OPEC Secretariat confirmed that it had received updated compensation plans from Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman. These countries had been producing above their quotas since January 2024 and have now committed to additional cuts until June 2026 to compensate for these excess volumes. Kazakhstan, in particular, is under scrutiny here, as it will have to make significant reductions in May and June.
Market environment and the “Venezuela shock”
Analysts point out that OPEC+ is responding to a looming supply surplus with this pause. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a potential surplus of up to 3.8 million bpd for 2026, driven by rising production in the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana.
Additional unrest was caused by the news that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro had been detained by US special forces on January 3, 2026. While OPEC+ members emphasized at their meeting that it was still too early to respond to these political upheavals, traders worldwide are closely monitoring whether Venezuelan oil production, currently at around 800,000 bpd, will be affected.
In order to closely monitor market dynamics, the group of eight countries will continue to hold monthly meetings. The next meeting to review market conditions and compensation progress is scheduled for February 1, 2026.