OPEC and GECF Warn of Energy Crisis: Trillions in Investments in Oil and Gas Urgently Needed
At their Sixth High-Level Energy Dialogue in Vienna, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) issued an urgent appeal to the international community: in view of record-breaking growth in demand, massive and long-term investment in oil and gas production is essential. Without sufficient funding, there is a risk of a shortage in supply security.
The two most important organizations for oil and gas exporters emphasized the need to take a “realistic” view of the future of energy. / Picture: © Wikimedia Commons / DALIBRI / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
OPEC Secretary General HE Haitham Al Ghais emphasized that global demand for fossil fuels is growing steadily. He forecast a 1.6 percent increase in global natural gas consumption and a 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) increase in global oil demand by 2025. “It's one record after another, year after year,” said Al Ghais.
Long-term forecasts support this view, with the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2050 expecting global energy demand to rise by 23 percent by 2050 and oil demand to reach 123 mb/d. The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 also assumes that gas demand will increase by over 32 percent by 2050, supported by population and economic growth. The organizations agree that the combined share of oil and gas in the global energy mix will remain above 50 percent by 2050.
The main concern of both forums is chronic underinvestment. According to the GECF, US$11.1 trillion is needed to secure future gas supplies, while OPEC estimates that US$18.2 trillion will be required in the global oil industry by 2050.
Dissenting opinion of the IEA
This optimism and the associated investment demands are in direct contradiction to the forecasts of other key players. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which represents industrialized countries, expects significantly lower demand growth for oil, for example, an increase of only around 700,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026. The IEA also expects global oil demand to plateau at around 105.5 mb/d by the end of the decade – far below OPEC's 123 mb/d. This conflict highlights the deep differences in the assessment of future energy markets.
Criticism of EU climate policy
HE Eng. Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF, emphasized the central role of natural gas in global energy security and the fight against energy poverty. At the same time, he expressed strong concerns about specific EU regulations and directives that could have potentially extraterritorial and harmful effects on energy security and global cooperation.
The criticism is directed in particular at the Methane Emission Regulation (MER), the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The MER Regulation aims to reduce methane emissions from the energy sector by requiring operators to measure and repair leaks. It also targets emissions from imported fossil fuels. The CSDDD Directive requires large companies to assess their entire value chain for human rights and environmental risks. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is designed to prevent European climate protection measures from leading to a shift in production to countries with lower environmental standards (“carbon leakage”) by imposing an equivalent CO2 price on imported goods.
Producers see these measures as a threat to the long-term investment-friendly climate called for by Al Ghais. According to the OPEC Secretary General, innovation and technology are crucial to reducing emissions while meeting rising energy demand. The dialogue between OPEC and GECF is to continue in 2026 to further strengthen cooperation in the run-up to and during the next climate conferences (such as COP30).