ICMPD and Migration 2026: A “Window of Opportunity” for Europe
The International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) has published its eagerly awaited “Migration Outlook 2026.” While the number of irregular arrivals in the EU is falling, the organization warns against a false sense of calm. The new Director General, Susanne Raab, calls for the decisive implementation of the EU Asylum Pact.
The ICMPD's Migration Outlook provides a forecast and analysis of key migration events and policy trends for the year. / Picture: © Vindobona.org
The year 2025 marked a turning point in European migration statistics. According to the latest ICMPD report, EU member states recorded a 26% decline in irregular arrivals and a 21% decrease in asylum applications. At the same time, the return rate for rejected applicants rose to 27%.
The #ICMPDMigrationOutlook 2026 is now available What are the 10 migration issues to look out for in 2026?
— ICMPD (@ICMPD) January 19, 2026
The ICMPD Migration Outlook 2026 offers a forward-looking analysis of migration and policy trends in the EU and beyond, highlighting the 10 migration issues to look… pic.twitter.com/DrW9p5lgOc
Susanne Raab, the new Director General of the ICMPD, sees this as a historic opportunity: “The declines in 2025 create a rare window of opportunity for the implementation of the Migration Pact. Europe must use this respite to put the new rules into practice – from operational readiness at the borders to credible solidarity among Member States.”
The 10 key issues for 2026
The report identifies ten key factors that will determine migration patterns this year:
| # | Issue | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conflict Levels | Security worsened in 87+ countries, sustaining high displacement risks. |
| 2 | Global Crises | Unpredictable events remain the "great unknown" for migration routes. |
| 3 | Funding Cuts | Reduced humanitarian aid increases pressure on refugee populations. |
| 4 | EU-North Africa | Deepened ties focusing on labor mobility and border security. |
| 5 | EU Migration Pact | Transition from policy to the "hard slog" of operational implementation. |
| 6 | Returns Framework | Pressure for tangible results in deporting rejected applicants. |
| 7 | Realpolitik Turn | Continued shift toward pragmatic and interest-based migration policy. |
| 8 | Labor Geopolitics | Skilled migration used as a strategic tool in EU international relations. |
| 9 | Skills-based Approach | Growth in cooperation between governments and the private sector. |
| 10 | Venezuela Scenarios | Uncertainty following US strikes impacting South American displacement. |
Labor shortage vs. border security
A central paradox of the coming years is demographic change in Europe.While border security is being massively strengthened, the region is more dependent than ever on foreign workers. The trend here is moving away from purely quota-based models toward a skills-based approach, in which the qualifications of immigrants are directly matched to the needs of the private sector.
The role of the new EU asylum and migration pact
The pact, which was adopted in 2024, will enter its decisive phase in 2026. The regulations aim to distribute responsibility more fairly among member states and speed up procedures at external borders. However, experts emphasize that the pact's success depends on “operational readiness” – in other words, whether IT systems, border personnel, and reception centers are actually functional in time.
“The EU must not rest on its laurels”
Despite the positive trends, the ICMPD remains cautious. The geopolitical situation is too volatile to give the all-clear. According to analysts, cuts in international humanitarian aid in particular could lead to people in camps near conflict zones seeing no future and setting off for Europe once again.