Global Migration in 2025: ICMPD Identifies Challenges and Strategies

The focus is particularly on the effects of Donald Trump's second presidency, the development of the Ukraine refugee crisis, and new political measures to regulate migration in Europe. Migration is a complex issue that presents both challenges and opportunities. The international community's response to these developments will largely determine how migration trends develop in the coming years.

Rapid growth in global displacement

By mid-2024, the number of forcibly displaced people worldwide had risen to 122.6 million, an increase of 11.5% from the previous year. This trend is fueled by ongoing conflicts, political instability, and environmental disasters. Tensions are escalating in sub-Saharan Africa, while the Middle East remains a hotspot for displacement. Natural disasters such as droughts and floods in Asia and Latin America are exacerbating this trend. While humanitarian organizations point to a growing emergency, international support often remains inadequate. The situation is particularly dramatic in countries such as Syria, Sudan, and Venezuela, where internal displacement is affecting millions of people.

Remarkably, this increase does not correlate with the European arrival figures, which fell by 40% over the same period. This discrepancy indicates the effectiveness of more restrictive migration policies and increased border controls. At the same time, pressure is increasing on neighboring regions, particularly Turkey, Lebanon, and North Africa. These countries, which have already taken in large refugee populations, are facing enormous economic and social challenges. The long-term sustainability of the current migration policy remains questionable.

Uncertain migration trends in Europe

Despite the global increase in displacement figures, Europe is experiencing a decline in irregular migration. This trend could be due to a combination of stricter border controls, bilateral agreements with transit countries, and the externalization of asylum procedures. Many EU states are increasingly focusing on sealing themselves off and attempting to block migration routes by cooperating with third countries. However, it remains to be seen whether this development is sustainable or merely a temporary shift.

At the same time, political pressure is increasing in the member states, particularly in countries such as Italy, Greece, and Spain, which continue to be the main countries of arrival. European policy is caught between the protection of external borders and compliance with international obligations. While some countries are increasingly focusing on returns, others are calling for a fairer distribution of refugees within the EU. The discourse on migration therefore remains politically highly contested.

Global tightening of migration policy

We are observing a global trend towards more restrictive migration policies. Many countries are tightening their immigration laws, expanding border fortifications, and relying on the externalization of asylum procedures. Countries such as the USA, Poland, Hungary, and the UK are significantly tightening their migration controls. In many cases, migration is increasingly seen as a security challenge, leading to a militarization of border control measures.

These measures are aimed at curbing irregular migration, but raise questions about human rights and international protection. Human rights organizations warn of possible rights violations, especially in third countries that serve as deportation centers. Critics argue that restrictive measures often lead to more dangerous migration routes and an increase in human trafficking and smuggling. While states attempt to control migration, the challenge of providing safe and legal access for those seeking protection remains.

Global impact of the second Trump presidency

President Donald Trump's return to office in the USA has far-reaching consequences for global migration policy. His administration is focusing on strict border reforms and increased deportations, which could potentially lead to a shift in migration flows to Europe. The announced wall expansion on the border with Mexico and new strict visa regulations could increase the pressure on neighboring Latin American countries. At the same time, a more restrictive US policy could shift the political debate in Europe further to the right.

Asylum seekers from Venezuela, Colombia, and Peru in particular could increasingly seek their way to Europe. US rhetoric is also influencing political debates in Europe and increasing pressure on countries of origin and transit. Experts fear that the USA could withdraw from multilateral migration agreements, making global cooperation efforts more difficult.

Europe must proactively develop strategies that take into account both security needs and humanitarian obligations. The challenge will be to find solutions that enable both short-term crisis management and long-term migration management. International cooperation and a balanced political discourse will be crucial to manage migration sustainably.

ICMPD