UNODC: War is Transforming Ukraine's Criminal Landscape
The war in Ukraine has significantly altered the country's criminal landscape and caused considerable social and economic damage. In a report, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) examined the development of organized crime in the fourth year of the war and found that criminal groups have adapted their business models to the new reality.
Like any war, the consequences are far-reaching and serious for society. The war in Ukraine also has serious consequences for crime in Ukraine, which it exacerbates. / Picture: © Wikimedia Commons / State Emergency Service of Ukraine/ CC BY-SA 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)
Since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the trade in cocaine and heroin through Ukraine has declined dramatically, partly due to the closure of sea and air ports. In contrast, the production and trade of synthetic drugs such as methadone and cathinones have increased. Much of the methadone produced in Ukraine is not smuggled abroad, as domestic demand has increased. Large, well-structured criminal groups dominate the synthetic drug market. Some of these groups, such as “Khimprom,” have also entered the cyber fraud business. The number of fraud cases more than tripled in 2023 compared to 2022 and is estimated to be operated by 1,500 call centers across the country. The victims are mainly Ukrainians, but people in other parts of Europe are also occasionally affected.
The availability of weapons has increased since February 2022, leading to a rise in weapons discoveries and violence among civilians, particularly domestic violence. Although there is no evidence of large-scale arms smuggling from Ukraine, the report emphasizes the importance of monitoring, given the large number of weapons available. In addition, customs fraud and tobacco smuggling could cost Ukraine hundreds of millions of dollars.
Displacement and crime
Approximately 14 million people, or 35 percent of Ukraine's population, have been forced to flee, increasing their vulnerability to human trafficking. Criminal groups have exploited these people to profit from social benefits for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and refugees. Other displaced persons are lured into shelters disguised as humanitarian aid centers, where they are then forced into forced labor.
Danilo Mandic on crime and internally displaced persons
Sociologist Danilo Mandic of Harvard University researches the role of transnational mafia groups in separatist movements and the relationship between organized crime, nationalism, and state formation, and delivers an even more scientific approach. In his book Gangsters and Other Statesmen, he argues that organized crime can be a decisive factor in state capacity, the success of separatist movements, and ethnic conflicts. He conducted field research in the disputed territories of Kosovo and South Ossetia and spoke with mobsters, separatists, and politicians in war zones and along major smuggling routes. Mandic points out that the dividing line between political power and mafia groups in torn states is often very porous.
In an article published in the Journal of Democracy about internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine, whom he interviewed in the Donbas war zone in the summer of 2022, Mandic writes that the majority of these people are Russian-speaking and come from the east of the country. He notes that their living conditions, livelihoods, and physical and mental health have been at risk since 2014. Many of these internally displaced persons have been treated as political pawns by “gangster-led separatist authorities” in the breakaway provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. He argues that a wise nation-building policy must encompass regional inclusion, linguistic and cultural pluralism, reconstruction, and war crimes justice, not revenge and scapegoating.
According to Mandic, the issue of crime and war requires a reassessment of how international conflicts are analyzed. The role of transnational mafia groups should no longer be ignored, as they can significantly shape the dynamics of secession, ethnic mobilization, and state collapse. Mandic emphasizes that the civilian population displaced by the war should not be seen as a burden, but as a great strength for a free and open Ukrainian country.