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Poland´s Economic Growth Accelerates

Published: August 17, 2013; 13:04 · (Vindobona)

In the second quarter of 2013, the annual growth rate came at 0.8%. Due to combined monetary and fiscal measures, the outlook is positive.

Poland´s Economic Growth Accelerates / Picture: © Flickr

After an annual growth rate of 0.4% in the first three months of 2013, Poland´s economy begins to accelerate. According to the Polish Central Statistical Office, the flash estimate indicates a trend reversal. Economists report that domestic consumption recovers and has a positive impact on the economic performance again. Poland´s economy is much more based on domestic consumption. The export share only comes at 40% of GDP.

Nevertheless, Poland´s economic growth will the lowest for years in 2013. The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) forecasts a growth rate of 1.2% this year (2012: 1.9%). In 2013, the country is anticipated to record a GDP growth of 2.7%.

Since summer 2012, Poland´s National Bank (NBP) has been cutting the base rate drastically. As the economic slowdown did not come to an end, Poland´s government decided to postpone the austerity targets. This year, Poland´s budget deficit is expected to reach about 4.5% of GDP. As a result, Poland´s budget is not expected to comply to the Maastricht Criteria before 2015.

Poland´s industrial sector proves stable. This year, the industrial output is anticipated to increase by 3.5% and by 4.6% in 2014. The FDI inflow is improving again. After a FDI quota of 1.3% in 2012, foreign direct investments will reach about 2.5% this year. One of Poland´s main problem is the persistently high unemployment quota, which will not decrease below 13% before 2015.