Austria's Colonel Markus Reisner: Escalation, Strategies and Possible Turning Points in the Ukraine War

Since the night of August 27, the Russian army has been intensifying its airstrikes on Ukraine. Several cities and regions, including the capital Kyiv, have been hit by missiles. One particularly explosive attack targeted a dam north of Kyiv, the destruction of which could trigger a devastating flood catastrophe. These attacks are interpreted as a Russian reaction to the recent Ukrainian offensive near Kursk, in which Ukrainian troops conquered Russian territory for the first time since the start of the war.

Colonel Markus Reisner from the Theresian Military Academy emphasizes that these airstrikes are part of a longer-term Russian strategy aimed at the systematic destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure. According to Reisner, Ukraine currently only has nine gigawatts of the original 18 gigawatts of power supply at its disposal. The Russian air campaign, which strikes again every two to three weeks, has already caused massive damage. These attacks could plunge Ukraine into a severe energy crisis in the coming winter, which would further destabilize the country.

The situation in Donbas: a crucial section of the front

Parallel to the airstrikes, the fighting in the Donbas is intensifying. The region has been a key battleground since the beginning of the conflict, and the fighting around the strategically important city of Pokrovsk has reached a new level of intensity. Russia has positioned six operational maneuver groups along the front in the Donbas, which are attacking across a width of around 300 kilometers. This offensive aims to break through the Ukrainian defense lines and, if possible, achieve an operational breakthrough near Pokrovsk.

According to Reisner, the focus of the Russian offensive was in the Donbas, where the “Centr”, “Yug” and “Vostok” groupings bore the brunt of the attacks. If Russia succeeds in taking Pokrovsk, this could trigger a devastating domino effect. There are hardly any fortified defensive positions behind Pokrovsk, which could enable a rapid Russian advance to the Dnieper. Such a breakthrough could significantly weaken the Ukrainian defense system and collapse the front line in the entire region.

The offensive in Kursk: a risky advance by Ukraine

Since the beginning of August, Ukrainian troops have occupied Russian territory in the Kursk region as part of a ground offensive. This offensive marks a turning point in the war, as it is Ukraine's first major military operation on Russian soil since the start of the war. The offensive has rekindled hopes of victory in Ukraine, but at the same time, it carries considerable risks.

In the last three weeks, Ukraine claims to have conquered almost 100 villages covering an area of over 1,200 square kilometers - around three times the size of Vienna, as reported by DerStandard. However, while the Ukrainian leadership is celebrating this advance as a success, the strategic and tactical challenges remain great. According to Colonel Reisner, the offensive is an attempt to interrupt the Russian summer offensive and shift the momentum to the Ukrainian side.

However, the advance in Kursk is also a sign to the West: Ukraine is signaling that it is capable of achieving further successes with sufficient military support. But despite this symbolism, the situation in Donbas remains critical. Russian troops have not yet withdrawn any significant numbers of troops from the Donbas in response to the offensive near Kursk. Instead, Moscow appears to have sufficient personnel reserves to both attack in the Donbas and contain the Ukrainian advances near Kursk.

Belarus: A new front line in the north?

While the fighting rages in Donbas and Kursk, Belarus is also increasingly coming into focus. Russian troop movements on Belarusian territory near the Ukrainian border indicate a potential new threat. The Belarusian armed forces have begun to deploy mechanized units to the border with Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to station tens of thousands of soldiers on this front.

However, the border area between Belarus and Ukraine is characterized by extensive swampy areas, which would make a military advance considerably more difficult. The so-called Pripyat Marshes represent a natural obstacle that would require a large-scale offensive. Nevertheless, Ukraine must take this potential threat seriously and commit resources accordingly, further complicating an already tense situation.

The long-term outlook: A war with no clear outcome

The situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile and the long-term outlook is uncertain. While Ukraine was able to achieve tactical success with its offensive in Kursk, Russia's strategic superiority, particularly in the air, remains a decisive factor. The Ukrainian armed forces are faced with the difficult task of holding their positions and at the same time withstanding further Russian attacks.

Russian air superiority remains one of the biggest challenges for Ukraine. Without modern fighter aircraft such as the F-16, which could balance the balance of power in the air, Ukraine remains on the defensive. Russian air defenses remain strong, and even with F-16 jets, the range of these aircraft would be limited. Nevertheless, the use of such jets could help to break Russian air superiority, at least locally, and give Ukrainian troops a much-needed advantage.

Another decisive factor is the question of whether Ukraine will succeed in securing its territorial gains in the long term. The offensive near Kursk has brought short-term successes, but without sustained security in these areas, the Russian counterattack could quickly undo Ukrainian progress. Ukraine must prepare for possible counterattacks and take advantage of favorable terrain to defend its positions.

A fine line between success and defeat

The war in Ukraine is at a critical point where both military and political decisions could have far-reaching consequences. The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has shown that Kyiv is prepared to take high risks to turn the tide. At the same time, the danger of a strategic setback remains, especially if Russia continues its offensive in the Donbas and breaks through the Ukrainian defenses.

The coming weeks could be decisive in determining whether Ukraine can maintain its position or whether it will have to accept further setbacks. In any case, it is clear that the war in Ukraine is far from over and that the international community will continue to play a key role. The question of how long Ukraine can withstand the Russian attacks and what role the West will play in this remains open. What is clear, however, is that the escalation of the conflict harbors new dangers that could extend far beyond Ukraine.

Austrian Armed Forces