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Serbia: Exports Decline, Foreign Deficit Goes Up

Published: September 8, 2012; 14:23 · (Vindobona)

According to RCB (Raiffeisen Centrobank), the draught in Serbia is likely to reduce the corn yield exports volumes. The trade deficit rose by 13.6% in June.

Serbia: Exports Decline, Foreign Deficit Goes Up / Picture: © Vindobona.org

As per seasonally adjusted data exports fell in June by 1.2% mom (May/12: %1.8% mom), while imports fell by 2.2% mom (May/12: +0.5% mom). Foreign trade volumes grew in Jan%June/12 by 3.8% yoy to € 11.4bn, supported by growing imports (+5.7% yoy) which came to € 7.3bn, while moderate pace of exports (+0.6% yoy) coming to € 4.1bn. Trade deficit in Jan1June/12 widened further to € 3.1bn (+13.6% yoy) reflecting on export%import ratio worsening to 57.4% vs 60.5% same

period last year. The key export products in June/12: cereals (8.3% share in exports), electrical machinery, units & appliances (7.1% share), non ferrous metals (5.3% share), fruits and vegetables (5.1% share) and iron&steel (4.2% share). The key import products in June/12: road vehicles (6.3% share in imports), electrical machinery,units&appliances (4.6% share), petroleum&petroleum products (4.6% share in imports), gas natural and manufactured (4.1% share) and iron&steel (3.9% share).

As expected, draught delivered very weak cereals export values, while machinery exports were the June’s exports leader. Also, drought will reduce further food exports, as per some estimates corn yield (country’s key export product) will be cut by 70% as per rough estimates. Also the wheat yield will be reduced by 30% due to draught, while the negative impact will be seen in the sunflower and soya yields. The annual data shows almost the same result, substantial reduction in food products and improved exports in machinery. While exports level exceeding the corresponding 2011 level is yet encouraging, more material enlargement will be missed this year, despite massive dinar weakening, given prolonging EU sovereign debt crises.

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